I want to now introduce you to our end of lunch time speaker. Ziv Navoth.

Ziv is going to be talking about seven trends that he thinks you should be aware that are large trends that
that are going to relate directly or indirectly to your work and your lives. And I thought it was a good context
to have his background here for our first time period for a few days. Ziv runs one of the most forward thinking
management consulting firms that I know. His client list includes companies such as Google, Microsoft, The
Atomic Energy Authority and The Industrial Development Societies of America. A very diverse group. Ziv Navoth
has been involved with the a local company network for quite some time and whenever I introduced him and I introduced
a lot of people to a lot of other people, he is the person who I have gotten a thank you back most often and a very
emphatic thank you from having made that introduction. I think we're privileged to be able to spend some time
with him during lunch.

Thank you. So predicting the future is a hard thing to do, some might say impossible. Ziv found a company that
the topics were going follow in the next 30 minutes have nothing to do with predictions. Most of the things that
will change the way we work, live and play have already happened. Well, the best way to speak about the future is
to take a look at the past. And so I would like to go back to the year 1857 and take look at one of America's most
successful industries. 1857 was a really good year for the ice harvest industry. Also, in demand had been growing
at a steady pace and recent innovations enabled ice harvesters to cut increasing large amounts of ice from frozen ponds
and ship them to destinations as far as India. The ice trade both the fredrick the ice computer has been growing and extending
itself to more successful competitors for more than half a century. There as easy to think, that it's yet in its infancy.
Nothing could of have been further from the truth. Unbeknownst to the ice harvester, innovations and chemistry
and further dynamics have just led to the invention of the ammonia compressing machine, also know as the refrigerator.
While the ice harvesters were busing introducing incremental innovations to their saws, industry outsider began manufactoring ice.
A few ice harvesters recognized the design shift around them and began infecting ones, but most didn't understand
what was going on. And by 1920 the ice harvesting industry was gone for good. Now I hear what you say, it's easy to
criticize an industry with a 100 years on it's side. If the ice services really knew what was going on around them, they
would have changed. Well, I doubt it. We've seen example after example of industries that have failed to die, to the
changing environment around them. Consider the telecommunications industry in a small company like Skyte. By the way
how many of you have heard about Skyte? Pretty much everybody. Skyte was founded it less than 3 years ago,
with the aid to provide people with free high quality voice over the internet. Last month, eBay announced that
they were buying Skyte for over 4 billion dollars. There are over 50 million registered users who regular use Skyte. This
is from a company that doesn't have a single cell phone engineer working for them. A year ago when I downloaded
Skyte, it's when Michael Cow used to be their Chairman of the FCC. With this he distributed for free a mini
program that you could use and talk to anybody else. And the qualitity is fantastic and it's free, it's over. The world will
change out eventually. How soon can we expect this change? Well, if your in the telephone industry, it seems it's
already happened. Because, last month in Denmark more people made phone calls over the internet than using their
land line. My brother is a geneticist, every time I wanted to understand a complex topic in business I ask him to explain
something to me about biology. So, I asked him. What is the single most important trait for an organism to have in order
to survive? Is it strength? He said no. Is it intelligence? He said no. At which point I started feeling like maybe I got
a shot at this thing. He said the single most important trait for an organism to survive is the responsiveness to change. Now,
you know every year you get another speaker getting on stage, telling you how you need to change this, how you need to
change that. I will be the first to admit, change is difficult, change is painful. But if you don't like change, your going to
like irrelevance even less. I would like to take you back in time once more. To the year 1347, a fleet of ships was
making it's way to Etiophia, to the port of Daneil off the coast of Italy. By the time the fleets had arrived at their
destinations all the the crew members were either dead or dying. The men aboard the ship were carrying a deadly
payload, called yersinia pestis, also known as the Bubonic Plague. And by 1350 less than 3 years after the ships arrived in
Italy, the Black Death had wiped out a 3rd of Europe's population. Ever since then populations have been growing exponentially
until today that is. The developed world is in the process of committing collective national suicide, says the late Peter Druker,
A quick look at Italy shows us why, Italy is a country which in the 1960's gave birth to a million babies each year, today
that figure is only half a million. And so Italy, a country with a birth rate of only 1.3 is the first country in the world
to have more people over the age of 60, than people under the age of 20. To visualize what this looks like, imagine a
pyramid. A population pyramid, down the bottom we have a lot of very, very young people and at the top a small group of
old people. This is how it's been for the better part of our exsistance. However today, almost all of the developed world
this population pyramid is being flipped over on its head. And at the bottom we have a small group of young people
and on top an increasing large group of old people. According to the US census bureau, half of the worlds population
now lives in countries with fertility rates lower than what's needed to keep the population from shrinking. At the same
time, life expectancy which before the turn of the century was under 45 years old, is now hovering around 80. Did you
hear that? That's the sound of a perfect demographic story. This year Japan, the world's second largest economy will
stop growing. A 127 million, that's it. It ain't getting any bigger. By the year 2030, 50% of Germany's population will
be over the age of 65. So, what? Who cares if there are more and more older people and less and less younger people?
Well, frankly we should all care. Because this is probably the most significant change you will see in your life time. The
3 reasons, why this change is significant. One is social security, two the climate need and three immigration. And just to
kind of provide you some support, USA Today on the front cover came out with three gaps, with social security service and medi-
care take off, the deficit can soar, the result, a fiscal hurricane. Why? Well, lets take a look at how social security works.
Social security is a pretty simple concept. The idea is that we take off a bit of money from the income that workers have
today and we give it to people who can not work or are too old to do so. Now, as long as the ratio between the amount
people who are in the work force and the amount of people who are retired kept it down, the system works. In the 1940s
there we 50 workers supporting 1 retiree. But by the 1960s that ratio was already 15 workers to 1 retiree. Today, it's
3 to 1. And by 2030, if current demographics trends continue, that ratio is going to be 2 to 1. By the way in Europe, its
going to be far worse. Countries like France, Italy and Germany, we're looking at ratios where 1 worker supports 1
retiree. The impact on this is that less and less of us are going to be able to retire by the age 65, let alone earlier. Why?
Because when the German Chancellor, Auto Von Dismark put the retirement age at 65, the year was 1870. Added life expectancy
back then was 45 years old. It made a lot of sense, not a lot of people reached 65. But when added life expectancy is
hovering around 80, we've got a problem. Now a lot of people say well, it's not really a problem because if you have
a shrinking amount of younger people. If your work force is getting a little bit more smaller and smaller. Why not bring
in immigrates? They'll flow to the US and Canada. Well, frankly I can count on one hand the amount of countries in
the world who have a progressive attitude toward immigration. In fact I don't know if any of you have been following
the news in the past two weeks. But Paris is burning. The country is experiencing the worst riots that its seen since the
1960s. Why? Because France's Muslim population, which is the largest in Europe, over 10% of the countries population
is Muslim is tried of being treated like a 3rd class citizen. Tried of being poorly integrated. But France is not alone.
Attitudes toward immigration in Germany, in Japan and Austria, are far from positive. The odd thing is that these negative
attitudes happen in exactly in the same countries that need immigrates more than anybody else. By the year 2020, Germany
will have to import a million immigrates each year just to keep the same economic output. If it fails to do so, the economy
will shrink. But to make matters really worse, these dynamics that I've just described, there not going to change in the
next twenty years. How do I know? Because the people who will enter the work force twenty years from now, have
already been born. Now, why is it that when you get a speaker on stage who talks about the future. It's always doom
and gloom? Why can't somebody get on stage and say hey, here's some really, really good news? Well, folks I'm your
man. Because one of the outcomes of these population trends is the creation of the most interesting market that we've
seen since WW2 created the sweet bud. This market holds over 70% of this countries wealth, over 50% of disposable
income and for the next generation, its going to be the fastest market. Who am I talking about? Your mothers, that's
where the sweet bud is. How do I know? Well, look at the table of the richest new enterpreneurs in France. Four of the
top ten made their money off of nursing home. Look at the table of the fastest growing franchises in the US. You will see companies
names like Visiting Angels, Home Helpers and Comfort Keepers who will shop, run errands, prepare meals, who will
pretty much do anything that an over 60 would need. Look at New Balance, 1989 New Balance was the 12th largest
shoe manufactor in the US and in that year Jud Davis, the companies CEO decided to focus on baby boomers as his main
target audience. Today the company is number 3. So, now that we've understood how demographics are going to
change the way we work, live and play. I would like to focus on another powerful force. How many people in the
audience have ever heard about the mathematician Andrew Wild? ...OK... a few, Andrew Wild discovered his passions in his
life when he was 10 old. He was bound to the math section of public library in Cambridge when he stumbled upon a book in mathematics
that was devoted to a single problem called (inaudible). Now, Pierre (inaudible) was a french lawyer, sometimes
mathematician in 1637 in the margins of his fathers mathematics book wrote down an (inaudible). Next to it he
scribbled the following lines. I discovered a truly remarkable group, which this margin is too small to contain. Now,
no one ever found (inaudible) group, it's not even sure if he had. But that didn't stop the best minds in mathematics
from tying to figure out and try to find the truth to this serum. But for over 300 hundred years, everyone failed. Until
1993, after obcessing about the problem for most of his life Andrew Wild in a 150 pages published on the internet and
elsewhere details of discovery. There was only one problem. He made a mistake. And in recognizing the mistake, he
retracted his truth. Unfortunately, as we all know retracting from the internet is impossible. So, without his knowledge
mathematicians around the world continued to work while correcting his mistake. And by 1994 (inaudible) was fruitem.
We here run into people online worldwide at long with their shared knowledge, social contacts, online reputations, computing
power and more are rapidly becoming a collective force of unprecedented power by a recent article from Business Week.
From the first time in near history, mass cooperation across cyber space is suddenly economically. How many folks
here, heard about Jimmy Wells? Jimmy's the founder of (inaudible). He's actually a finalist in this years WTBN awards.
(inaudible) is the fastest, one of the fastest growing online destinations. It's an online encyclopedia with over 800 thousand
entries just in English. But it supports over 200 languages. All in the spirit of mass collaboration. Anybody can put in
an entry and anybody can improve it. Which is exactly the problem that (inaudible) the Executive Director of Encyclopedia
Britannia has with (inaudible). The premise with (inaudible) he says, is that continuous improvement would lead to
perfection. That premise is completely unproven. Robert (inaudible) who used to be an editor in Encyclopedia Britannia
is more colorful in his adapt. The user of (inaudible) to learn about some subjects is rather in the position of a visitor
in a public restroom. He obviously heard it, that he knows to exercise great care or it seems fairly clean so that he maybe
lulled into false sense of security. What he certainly that he does not know, is that who has used the facility before him.
In both the future in enemies Virginia (inaudible) writes, how we feel about the involving future tells us who we are as
individuals and as a civilization. Do we surf for status, a regulated engineer world? Or do we rest on innocence? Do we
see mistakes as permanent disasters or correctable by products? We've seen how this next collaboration, this form of
peer production is changing our lives. But, I got to tell you folks, we ain't seen nothing yet. The first time I really
understood the power of the mobility of knowledge was about a year ago. I was browsing through lash.dot, the self
proclaimed news for (inaudible) website. Where I saw a posting by a programmer. And this was what he said: about a
year ago I hired a developer in India to do my job. I gave him $12,000 dollars to do the job, I get paid $67,000 dollars
for it. He's happy to have the work, I'm happy that I only have to work 90 minutes a day. The rest of my time, my
employer thinks I'm telecommuting. There happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my
co-workers. Now, I'm considering getting a second job and doing the same thing. That maybe pushing my luck though.
The extra money would be nice, but that could push my work day over 5 hours. I read this and I asked myself hey, if
this guy can outsource his job. Why can't I? So, I did. In fact I wouldn't have been able to be here today without (inaudible),
my trusted assistant. Who as we speak is doing a research project for me in Bangor. Now (inaudible) is based in London,
where I come from. I would never been able to afford him, because (inaudible) has an MBA from Immediate Institute
of Management which is actually more difficult to get into than Harvard. So, what's going on here? The world has arrived
at a rare strategic inflection point says Greg Barrett from Intel. Where nearly half its population living in China, India and
Russia have been integrated into the global market economy. Many of them, highly educated workers can do just about
job in the world. We're talking about 3 billion people. Here that, that's the sound of another perfect storm. Last year
Jim and I did a project for Microsoft in the investor design of America. We brought together 50 of the top designers in the
United States and locked them up in a room for 3 days. Forcing them to think about the future of their profession. Why?
Because these guys were the best in the world at design products. We're so used to seeing India and China who until
now we simply low cost abuses of their products, stealing their lunch. They we bidding for any many design project for
the highest end products that you can imagine. Now, when I came back from the workshop I started looking at the
limitations of offshoring and outsourcing. And I asked myself. What will be outsourced? What won't be outscourced?
And I came up with 3 applications that are safe. Teachers, doctors and hamburger flippers. Well, I was wrong about
teachers, because today for about $20.00 an hour you can some of the best tutoring in the world on topics such as
math, chemistry, biology, english, you name it, from some of the best teachers in the world. Now, I don't know how
many of you have kids, but the out going rate for a tutor today is anywhere $50 and $100 dollars. That's if the tutor
is based here. But if the tutor is based in India, you won't spend more than $20. dollars for better quality. Four years
ago the World Technology Network had an award ceremony. Just like you're sitting here today, I was sitting in the crowd
listening to the acceptance speech of an amazing individual called (inaudible). Who was using mobile technology and access
to the internet to transform the lives of very poor women farmers in India. I don't know if it's happened to you as you
heard of the million stories that have been told over the last few days. But that really blew me away. And I decided you
know what, it's enough to sit on my backside, let's go to India and see what it really looks like and where I can help.
And I did that, and I was amazed by the sophistication of these women who were making less than $1.00 dollar a day.
About how they innovated and came up new business models that really put me to shame. On the way back from India,
something magical happened. I got upgraded to business class. And I find myself sitting next to this grey haired
gentlemen and he says: how are you doing? I said well, I'm doing great. It's been a great day, I'm feeling good. He says
well listen, if you ever feel bad, why don't you give me a call? He gave me his card. It said Dr. (inaudible), Cold Hospitals.
He's a doctor who actually began a chain of hospitals in India that cater to, get this, Westerners who are looking for better
medical care at a fraction of a price. Better care for less money. Needless to say I was sick. Who would go to India
for medical treatment, let alone for heart surgery, until I saw the statistics. An MRI scan cost $700.00 dollars in the U.S. In
India, $60.00 dollars. Open heart surgery here, costs $200.000 dollars, in India $10.000 dollars. One reason is probably
because the fact that malpractice insurance in India is only $4000.00 dollars a year compared to a $100.000 dollars in the
U.S. The thing that really blew me away, was death rates. India hospitals had a death rate of less than 1%, that's less
than half of the death rate of the best institutions in the United States. We came to India for the costs says: (inaudible),
Senior Vice President of Corporate Development at Cisco. We can to India for the cost, and stayed here for the quality,
we now invest in here for the innovation. By the way I was wrong about hamburger flippers as well. We still your
average, trusted teenager to flip burgers. You don't need it for order taking. Chances are when you're driving through
McDonalds, your order is taking by somebody who is not even in the same state that you are. That's right. McDonalds
figured out that a cost of taking a wrong order was high enough to justify outsourcing or to taking it to a call center.
Speaking of McDonalds, I see that many of you still haven't finished your food. I would like to end with a quote from
Tom Freemen. He says the latest warning that my parents used to say to me was, finish up your food, there are people
starving in China. By contrast I keep wanting to say to my daughters, finish your homework. People in China are starving
for your job. Folks, you've been a wonderful crowd. The most immediate thing about the world Technology Network
is that you learn so much more than any other conference. That's because all the other conferences are focused on stuff
that you pretty much all ready know. You meet people that you already met before, along subject lines that you've been
focused on for the better part of your career. Yet, you come here and your exposed to people you never even thought
about. Talking, learning from them. And something magical happens when you interact between the people and you.
And so I urge you for the remaining time that you have here. Speak to people that you know nothing about what they
do. Because you're going to learn a hell of a lot more, than talking to the people you already know and feel
comfortable with. The science fiction author William Gibson said that the future's here. It's just not evenly distributed.
So, I can't leave you without a special offer. You give me your business card I will send you a free e-book that details
the 7 trends that will change the way we work and the way we play. And I hope that you enjoyed the rest of the day as much as I did.
And thank you for spending the last half hour with me.